Sensex See Saw

What a week it has been. We have hit an all time high. We have swung nearly about 2000 points on the Sensex and closed above 650 points on the Nifty. All that has culminated in a very disappointing close for the market especially today when the Sensex itself has closed close to about 400-500 points shave off itself there. That's an intraday volatility of about 800 points and the Nifty as well for its part has oscillated pretty much like a pendulum to close about a 135 points down and that nearly about a 300 points oscillation from the highs to the lows of the day. All this has been done on very high turnovers.

 

Volumes is what we have been concentrating on for the better part of the last few days. Yet, again 1 lakh crore crossed quite convincingly in trade today. The breadth continues to be abysmal to say the least. 1,000 stocks plus on declining front to just about a 100 odd on advances front. So that's not looking too good in terms of market internals.

 

But the discount picture, which was looking very ugly yesterday, retraced just little bit today, closed at about 10 points. That was relatively heartening to see after going to a discount of about 100 points intraday yesterday. It was pretty much across the board but heavyweights like Reliance, Bharti and Reliance Petroleum led it from the frontliners. Even Reliance's good set of results is not doing any good.

 

The power sector, which has been the torch led by Reliance Energy, Tata Power actually led to a collapse today. All of these stocks, Reliance Energy 16% down, massive unwinding on the futures side as well and Suzlon Energy shaving off about 5% of itself.

 

The capital goods which have been one of the leaders of the rally over the last few 1,000 points that also corrected led by L&T, BHEL , ABB all these stocks between 5-8%. The volumes were quite big on some of these stocks.

 

The real estate sector as a whole has cracked. Unitech was the biggest damage over there, 5% down or close to 4 million shares traded there. The DLFs and the Parsvnaths of the world joining in.

 

Metals as well, Sterlite, Nalco, Hindalco and even SAIL about 4% and 18 million shares traded there.

 

A disappointing day for power, metals, real estate and capital goods as a whole in terms of sectors. But the heavies that held strong today were the likes of ONGC , Tata Steel, some of them building long positions.

 

Wipro on the back of its good set of numbers today and Infosys as well bouncing back, all of these stocks having a decent gain between 1-2.5% each. So that was part of the market that looked okay.

 

One sector that stood out was the telecommunication sector. Reliance Communication, VSNL, MTNL for the last couple of days, where the market has done its own thing, have had a very good day. In fact these stocks stood up anywhere between 2-6% for themselves.

 

Bajaj Auto has a stellar set of results today, huge margin expansion as well. That rubbed off on Hero Honda as well and both those stocks having a good session in trade today. That having been said Reliance Capital , Mercator Lines, PFC, GMR, very liquid midcaps stocks. In fact, Reliance Capital non-index stock 10% crack, 4 million shares traded there. All of these stocks are taking it hard.

 

Liquid stocks like Arvind Mills, RNRL, Punj Lloyd all of these stocks cooling off. All of these stocks if you look at the future side has seen huge amount of unwinding of positions.

 

Even the midcap banking space as a whole has not looked too good. Stocks like Yes Bank, Bank of India , IndusInd Bank - all of them liquidating their positions on the futures side. In fact if you see the cut in open interest in some of these shares, you will see the impact that they have had on the cash market as well, about 5-8% down for these stocks.

 

The financials - the most liquid of them all IFCI, IDBI, IDFC were all cracking today, this is massive unwinding. You can actually just pick a liquid midcap stocks that has run up and all those positions are being cut drastically on the futures and the options side. That having been said, a few gainers - the odd Triveni Engineering, S Kumars, WWIL and Hexaware actually stood out in trade today. Not too many but all of these stocks are up anywhere between 5-10%. The volumes were relatively okay on some of these stocks.

 

A lot will happen over the weekend, those draft proposal feedbacks will come from SEBI and it had been a manic week with some manic oscillations. Let's see if there are some liberalizations that can come in on Monday and this mania can actually stabilise and take us forward. That's on Monday morning.

Source : Moneycontrol